February 15, 2007

Despite arctic conditions, work on the Liberty Renewable Fuels ethanol plant in Ithaca saw no slowdown. Speculation about the economic viability of ethanol plants in Michigan didn't slow down either, with some people speculating that the state may be reaching the tipping point.
After the gold rush, who will have the money?
There's no doubt that people became wealthy from the California Gold Rush of 1849. And there's no doubt that a major chunk of the wealth ended up in tavern owners' pockets, not prospectors' with pans and picks and shovels. Knowing that leaves many people wondering about the prospects of today's "gold rush" to Midwestern ethanol plants.
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Farm bill, trade on the cusp of change
Recent trends in commodity prices, combined with longer-term trends in the value of the U.S. dollar and changing consumer preferences, are likely to dominate the outlook for U.S. agricultural trade in 2007. These conditions will continue to contribute to U.S. agricultural exports while the continued evolution of consumer preferences will likely result in a record level of U.S. imports in 2007.
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Farmland values continue their upward motion
Michigan farmland values continued to tick upward in 2006, marking the 19th year in a row that land values have increased. The annual Michigan Land Value survey conducted in the spring of 2006 by the Department of Agricultural Economics at Michigan State University collects information on the value of different types of Michigan land. The survey reported on 2006 land values and, when compared with 2005, found a modest increase in land values in all categories. Average farmland values in 2006 are reported in table 1.
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Three factors driving milk prices
2006 U.S. milk production finished up above 2005 with large gains in California, Idaho and Texas. The number of U.S. milk cows declined in the middle of 2006, but the year finished with 9.126 million cows-up 72,000 from December 2005. Total cheese stocks were up 4.2 percent over a year earlier. Butter stocks at the end of October were 58.1 percent higher than a year earlier. Such statistics usually spell a relatively low milk price outlook, yet at the current time, both the Class III futures and USDA outlook are for 2007 milk prices above historical averages. What is driving these high milk prices? Three factors: corn prices, potential Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) actions, and world dairy markets.
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Safety seminars slated
Farmers who wish to improve safety practices on their farms to safeguard both family and employees, as well as lower the risk of liability lawsuits, have their choice of several meetings planned this winter by Michigan Farm Bureau's Agricultural Labor and Safety Services (ALSS), formerly known as the Regulatory Compliance Assistance Program.
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Farm income to be dominated by energy, interest rates
As farmers look toward 2007, much of the farm income outlook will remain similar to 2006, but developments in the second half of 2006 will add to the complexity of the farm income picture in 2007.
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Michigan economy to remain sluggish
Most estimates of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2007 are calling for a healthy growth rate of around 2.5 percent -3 percent. The main downside risks to this forecast are a further escalation of energy prices, the re-emergence of inflation (which would cause the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates), outright collapse of the declining U.S. housing sector, or an escalation of the U.S. conflict in the Middle East. In the absence of one or more of these major shocks, interest rates are expected to remain fairly stable throughout 2007, and the stock market is forecast to make modest gains. Inflation is currently forecast to moderate in 2007 down to about a 2 percent level.
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MAEAP - a lenders perspective
The MAEAP program provides education, an assessment of environmental risk and development of a plan to remediate the environmental risk. The program also provides third-party verification and ongoing oversight through the Michigan Department of Agriculture.
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